Prospect board, #160 overall
Owen Beck
Centre, 22.6 years old, Laval Rocket (AHL), 6′0″ 199 lb, shoots right
Odds he's an NHL regular
52%
Scouting report
Owen Beck is a 22-year-old centre with Laval Rocket in the AHL, a Montreal Canadiens second-round pick, 33 overall in 2022. He has 0 goals and 1 assist in 4 games, 0.25 a game, which works out to about 8 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. His team scores 4.2 a game, one of the better offences around. And the five best scorers around him average 1.47 points a game, well above the norm. Some of those points come from the company he keeps, and the model discounts them. Listed at 6-foot-0 and 199 pounds.
The model's median outcome for him is a fourth-liner, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 52% chance of becoming an NHL regular and 4% of a first-line career. If he makes it, figure about 33 points a season at his best. A fourth-line job tends to come from penalty killing and faceoffs more than from scoring.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age and draft slot like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite2%
- First-liner4%
- Middle-sixer16%
- Fourth-liner (most likely)52%
- Tweener63%
- AHLer95%+
How he got there
1His line
0.25 P/GP
0 G, 1 A in 4 games, AHL
2League exchange rate
8 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−27%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
22.6
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
#33
2022, read alongside his numbers
6If he makes it
33 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Laval Rocket | AHL | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.25 |
| Last season | Laval Rocket | AHL | 58 | 13 | 20 | 33 | 0.57 |