Prospect board, #632 overall
Michael Buchinger
Defence, 22.4 years old, Springfield Thunderbirds (AHL), 6′0″ 199 lb, shoots left
Odds he's an NHL regular
15%
Scouting report
Michael Buchinger is a 22-year-old defenceman with Springfield Thunderbirds in the AHL, a St Louis Blues third-round pick, 88 overall in 2022. He has 1 goal and 0 assists in 5 games, 0.20 a game, which works out to about 6 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. His team scores 2.2 a game, below the league, and much less when he is not the one scoring. He's producing without much support, and the model bumps him up for it. Listed at 6-foot-0 and 199 pounds.
The model's median outcome for him is an AHLer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 15% chance of becoming an NHL regular. This is a points model, so it can't see what he does without the puck. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age and draft slot like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite<1%
- Top-pair<1%
- Second-pair2%
- Third-pair15%
- Tweener32%
- AHLer (most likely)89%
How he got there
1His line
0.20 P/GP
1 G, 0 A in 5 games, AHL
2League exchange rate
6 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+27%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
22.4
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
#88
2022, read alongside his numbers
6If he makes it
21 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Springfield Thunderbirds | AHL | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.20 |
| Last season | Springfield Thunderbirds | AHL | 58 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 0.19 |