Prospect board, #120 overall
Seamus Casey
Defence, 22.7 years old, Utica Comets (AHL), 5′10″ 181 lb, shoots right
Odds he's an NHL regular
60%
Scouting report
Seamus Casey is a 22-year-old defenceman with Utica Comets in the AHL, a New Jersey Devils second-round pick, 46 overall in 2022. He has 1 goal and 18 assists in 29 games, 0.66 a game, which works out to about 21 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Most of it is setting up other people. The five best scorers around him average only 0.64 points a game. Scoring without much help counts for more, so the model nudges him up. Listed at 5-foot-10 and 181 pounds.
The model's median outcome for him is a third-pair defenceman, on a small sample. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 60% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 4% of a top-pair career and 4% of turning into one of the league's best. If he makes it, figure about 25 points a season at his best. This is a points model, so it can't see what he does without the puck. A third-pair job tends to come down to defending more than points.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a small sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age and draft slot like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite4%
- Top-pair4%
- Second-pair20%
- Third-pair (most likely)60%
- Tweener74%
- AHLer95%+
How he got there
1His line
0.66 P/GP
1 G, 18 A in 29 games, AHL
2League exchange rate
21 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+14%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
22.7
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
#46
2022, read alongside his numbers
6If he makes it
25 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last season | Utica Comets | AHL | 29 | 1 | 18 | 19 | 0.66 |