Prospect board, #291 overall
Ryan Chesley
Defence, 22.6 years old, Hershey Bears (AHL), 6′0″ 195 lb, shoots right
Odds he's an NHL regular
37%
Scouting report
Ryan Chesley is a 22-year-old defenceman with Hershey Bears in the AHL, a Washington Capitals second-round pick, 37 overall in 2022. He has 0 goals and 2 assists in 6 games, 0.33 a game, which works out to about 11 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Listed at 6-foot-0 and 195 pounds.
The model's median outcome for him is a tweener, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 37% chance of becoming an NHL regular. If he makes it, figure about 20 points a season at his best. This is a points model, so it can't see what he does without the puck. His odds move most with next season's line, so a big jump would matter more than a repeat.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age and draft slot like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite<1%
- Top-pair1%
- Second-pair2%
- Third-pair37%
- Tweener (most likely)61%
- AHLer95%+
How he got there
1His line
0.33 P/GP
0 G, 2 A in 6 games, AHL
2League exchange rate
11 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−3%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
22.6
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
#37
2022, read alongside his numbers
6If he makes it
20 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Hershey Bears | AHL | 6 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.33 |
| Last season | Hershey Bears | AHL | 64 | 6 | 10 | 16 | 0.25 |