GRIT & GF

Prospect board, #57 overall

Luca Del Bel Belluz

Centre, 22.9 years old, Cleveland Monsters (AHL), 6′1″ 188 lb, shoots left

Odds he's an NHL regular

81%

Fourth-liner

Scouting report

Luca Del Bel Belluz is a 22-year-old centre with Cleveland Monsters in the AHL, a Columbus Blue Jackets second-round pick, 44 overall in 2022. He has 22 goals and 36 assists in 55 games, 1.05 a game, which works out to about 34 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Listed at 6-foot-1 and 188 pounds.

The model's median outcome for him is a fourth-liner, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him an 81% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 13% of a first-line career and 5% of turning into one of the league's best. If he makes it, figure about 40 points a season at his best. A fourth-line job tends to come from penalty killing and faceoffs more than from scoring.

Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.

His odds

His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age and draft slot like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.

  1. Elite5%
  2. First-liner13%
  3. Middle-sixer42%
  4. Fourth-liner (most likely)81%
  5. Tweener92%
  6. AHLer95%+

How he got there

  1. 1His line

    1.05 P/GP

    22 G, 36 A in 55 games, AHL

  2. 2League exchange rate

    34 pts

    NHL-equivalent points over 82

  3. 3Team around him

    +5%

    Credit for a weak offence or thin help

  4. 4Age

    22.9

    On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20

  5. 5Draft slot

    #44

    2022, read alongside his numbers

  6. 6If he makes it

    40 pts

    Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars

Season lines

SeasonTeamLeagueGPGAPP/GP
Last seasonCleveland MonstersAHL552236581.05