Prospect board, #61 overall
Jagger Firkus
Right wing, 22.4 years old, Coachella Valley Firebirds (AHL), 5′11″ 177 lb, shoots right
Odds he's an NHL regular
65%
Scouting report
Jagger Firkus is a 22-year-old right wing with Coachella Valley Firebirds in the AHL, a Seattle Kraken second-round pick, 35 overall in 2022. He has 2 goals and 6 assists in 7 games, 1.14 a game, which works out to about 36 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Most of it is setting up other people. The five best scorers around him average 1.19 points a game, well above the norm. Some of those points come from the company he keeps, and the model discounts them. Listed at 5-foot-11 and 177 pounds.
The model's median outcome for him is a fourth-liner, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 65% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 22% of a first-line career and 5% of turning into one of the league's best. If he makes it, figure about 45 points a season at his best. A fourth-line job tends to come from penalty killing and faceoffs more than from scoring.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age and draft slot like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite5%
- First-liner22%
- Middle-sixer40%
- Fourth-liner (most likely)65%
- Tweener87%
- AHLer95%+
How he got there
1His line
1.14 P/GP
2 G, 6 A in 7 games, AHL
2League exchange rate
37 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−14%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
22.4
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
#35
2022, read alongside his numbers
6If he makes it
45 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Coachella Valley Firebirds | AHL | 7 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 1.14 |
| Last season | Coachella Valley Firebirds | AHL | 63 | 21 | 35 | 56 | 0.89 |