Prospect board, #108 overall
Nathan Gaucher
Centre, 22.9 years old, San Diego Gulls (AHL), 6′3″ 227 lb, shoots right
Odds he's an NHL regular
52%
Scouting report
Nathan Gaucher is a 22-year-old centre with San Diego Gulls in the AHL, a Anaheim Ducks first-round pick, 22 overall in 2022. He has 1 goal and 2 assists in 5 games, 0.60 a game, which works out to about 19 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. His team scores 2.7 a game, below the league, and much less when he is not the one scoring. He's producing without much support, and the model bumps him up for it. Listed at 6-foot-3 and 227 pounds.
His most likely outcome is a fourth-liner, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 52% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 10% of a first-line career and 3% of turning into one of the league's best. If he makes it, figure about 41 points a season at his best. A fourth-line job tends to come from penalty killing and faceoffs more than from scoring.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age and draft slot like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite3%
- First-liner10%
- Middle-sixer29%
- Fourth-liner (most likely)52%
- Tweener72%
- AHLer95%+
How he got there
1His line
0.60 P/GP
1 G, 2 A in 5 games, AHL
2League exchange rate
19 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+12%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
22.9
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
#22
2022, read alongside his numbers
6If he makes it
41 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | San Diego Gulls | AHL | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.60 |
| Last season | San Diego Gulls | AHL | 62 | 15 | 14 | 29 | 0.47 |