Prospect board, #164 overall
Gavin Hayes
Left wing, 22.3 years old, Rockford IceHogs (AHL), 6′1″ 177 lb, shoots right
Odds he's an NHL regular
37%
Scouting report
Gavin Hayes is a 22-year-old left wing with Rockford IceHogs in the AHL, a Chicago Blackhawks third-round pick, 66 overall in 2022. He has 3 goals and 2 assists in 6 games, 0.83 a game, which works out to about 27 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. His team scores 1.5 a game, below the league, and much less when he is not the one scoring. And the five best scorers around him average only 0.57 points a game. He's producing without much support, and the model bumps him up for it. Listed at 6-foot-1 and 177 pounds.
The model's median outcome for him is a tweener, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 37% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 10% of a first-line career and 3% of turning into one of the league's best. If he makes it, figure about 43 points a season at his best. His odds move most with next season's line, so a big jump would matter more than a repeat.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age and draft slot like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite3%
- First-liner10%
- Middle-sixer20%
- Fourth-liner37%
- Tweener (most likely)59%
- AHLer95%+
How he got there
1His line
0.83 P/GP
3 G, 2 A in 6 games, AHL
2League exchange rate
27 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+43%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
22.3
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
#66
2022, read alongside his numbers
6If he makes it
43 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Rockford IceHogs | AHL | 6 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 0.83 |
| Last season | Rockford IceHogs | AHL | 57 | 13 | 13 | 26 | 0.46 |