Prospect board, #132 overall
Brad Lambert
Centre, 22.7 years old, Manitoba Moose (AHL), 6′1″ 173 lb, shoots right
Odds he's an NHL regular
43%
Scouting report
Brad Lambert is a 22-year-old centre with Manitoba Moose in the AHL, a Winnipeg Jets first-round pick, 30 overall in 2022. He has 6 goals and 7 assists in 34 games, 0.38 a game, which works out to about 12 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. His team scores 2.5 a game, below the league, and much less when he is not the one scoring. And the five best scorers around him average only 0.57 points a game. He's producing without much support, and the model bumps him up for it. Listed at 6-foot-1 and 173 pounds.
The model's median outcome for him is a tweener, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 43% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 5% of a first-line career and 2% of turning into one of the league's best. If he makes it, figure about 43 points a season at his best. His odds move most with next season's line, so a big jump would matter more than a repeat.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age and draft slot like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite2%
- First-liner5%
- Middle-sixer32%
- Fourth-liner43%
- Tweener (most likely)67%
- AHLer95%+
How he got there
1His line
0.38 P/GP
6 G, 7 A in 34 games, AHL
2League exchange rate
12 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+27%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
22.7
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
#30
2022, read alongside his numbers
6If he makes it
43 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last season | Manitoba Moose | AHL | 34 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 0.38 |