Prospect board, #16 overall
Rutger McGroarty
Right wing, 22.5 years old, Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins (AHL), 6′2″ 212 lb, shoots left
Odds he's an NHL regular
86%
Scouting report
Rutger McGroarty is a 22-year-old right wing with Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins in the AHL, a Pittsburgh Penguins first-round pick, 14 overall in 2022. He has 4 goals and 5 assists in 6 games, 1.50 a game, which works out to about 48 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. The five best scorers around him average 1.20 points a game, well above the norm. Linemates like that pad a stat line, so the model takes some of his points back. Listed at 6-foot-2 and 212 pounds.
The model's median outcome for him is a middle-sixer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him an 86% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 44% of a first-line career and 19% of turning into one of the league's best. If he makes it, figure about 56 points a season at his best. Moving up a tier would take scoring well above his league's top-line rate.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age and draft slot like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite19%
- First-liner44%
- Middle-sixer (most likely)70%
- Fourth-liner86%
- Tweener95%+
- AHLer95%+
How he got there
1His line
1.50 P/GP
4 G, 5 A in 6 games, AHL
2League exchange rate
48 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−15%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
22.5
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
#14
2022, read alongside his numbers
6If he makes it
56 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | AHL | 6 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 1.50 |
| Last season | Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | AHL | 30 | 10 | 24 | 34 | 1.13 |