Prospect board, #248 overall
Filip Mesar
Right wing, 22.7 years old, Laval Rocket (AHL), 5′10″ 184 lb, shoots right
Odds he's an NHL regular
32%
Scouting report
Filip Mesar is a 22-year-old right wing with Laval Rocket in the AHL, a Montreal Canadiens first-round pick, 26 overall in 2022. He has 2 goals and 2 assists in 6 games, 0.67 a game, which works out to about 21 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. His team scores 4.2 a game, one of the better offences around. And the five best scorers around him average 1.47 points a game, well above the norm. Linemates like that pad a stat line, so the model takes some of his points back. Listed at 5-foot-10 and 184 pounds.
His most likely outcome is a tweener, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 32% chance of becoming an NHL regular and 3% of a first-line career. If he makes it, figure about 37 points a season at his best. His odds move most with next season's line, so a big jump would matter more than a repeat.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age and draft slot like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite<1%
- First-liner3%
- Middle-sixer15%
- Fourth-liner32%
- Tweener (most likely)55%
- AHLer95%+
How he got there
1His line
0.67 P/GP
2 G, 2 A in 6 games, AHL
2League exchange rate
21 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−24%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
22.7
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
#26
2022, read alongside his numbers
6If he makes it
37 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Laval Rocket | AHL | 6 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0.67 |
| Last season | Laval Rocket | AHL | 71 | 9 | 18 | 27 | 0.38 |