Prospect board, #19 overall
Noah Ostlund
Centre, 22.5 years old, Rochester Americans (AHL), 5′11″ 182 lb, shoots left
Odds he's an NHL regular
76%
Scouting report
Noah Ostlund is a 22-year-old centre with Rochester Americans in the AHL, a Buffalo Sabres first-round pick, 16 overall in 2022. He has 3 goals and 7 assists in 7 games, 1.43 a game, which works out to about 46 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Most of it is setting up other people. Listed at 5-foot-11 and 182 pounds.
The model's median outcome for him is a middle-sixer, on a small sample. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 76% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 47% of a first-line career and 17% of turning into one of the league's best. If he makes it, figure about 58 points a season at his best. Moving up a tier would take scoring well above his league's top-line rate.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a small sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age and draft slot like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite17%
- First-liner47%
- Middle-sixer (most likely)63%
- Fourth-liner76%
- Tweener93%
- AHLer95%+
How he got there
1His line
1.43 P/GP
3 G, 7 A in 7 games, AHL
2League exchange rate
46 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+2%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
22.5
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
#16
2022, read alongside his numbers
6If he makes it
58 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last season | Rochester Americans | AHL | 7 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 1.43 |