Prospect board, #104 overall
Reid Schaefer
Left wing, 23.0 years old, Milwaukee Admirals (AHL), 6′5″ 226 lb, shoots left
Odds he's an NHL regular
50%
Scouting report
Reid Schaefer is a 22-year-old left wing with Milwaukee Admirals in the AHL, a Nashville Predators first-round pick, 32 overall in 2022. He has 15 goals and 13 assists in 33 games, 0.85 a game, which works out to about 27 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Most of it is goals. Listed at 6-foot-5 and 226 pounds.
The model's median outcome for him is a fourth-liner, on a small sample. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 50% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 8% of a first-line career and 8% of turning into one of the league's best. If he makes it, figure about 40 points a season at his best. A fourth-line job tends to come from penalty killing and faceoffs more than from scoring.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a small sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age and draft slot like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite8%
- First-liner8%
- Middle-sixer22%
- Fourth-liner (most likely)50%
- Tweener87%
- AHLer95%+
How he got there
1His line
0.85 P/GP
15 G, 13 A in 33 games, AHL
2League exchange rate
27 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+1%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
23.0
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
#32
2022, read alongside his numbers
6If he makes it
40 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last season | Milwaukee Admirals | AHL | 33 | 15 | 13 | 28 | 0.85 |