Prospect board, #184 overall
Matthew Seminoff
Right wing, 22.7 years old, Texas Stars (AHL), 6′0″ 189 lb, shoots right
Odds he's an NHL regular
40%
Scouting report
Matthew Seminoff is a 22-year-old right wing with Texas Stars in the AHL, a Dallas Stars sixth-round pick, 179 overall in 2022. He has 0 goals and 5 assists in 6 games, 0.83 a game, which works out to about 27 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. His team scores 2.5 a game, below the league, and much less when he is not the one scoring. He's producing without much support, and the model bumps him up for it. Listed at 6-foot-0 and 189 pounds.
The model's median outcome for him is a tweener, with plenty of games behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 40% chance of becoming an NHL regular. If he makes it, figure about 36 points a season at his best. His odds move most with next season's line, so a big jump would matter more than a repeat.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a full sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age and draft slot like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite<1%
- First-liner2%
- Middle-sixer19%
- Fourth-liner40%
- Tweener (most likely)71%
- AHLer95%+
How he got there
1His line
0.83 P/GP
0 G, 5 A in 6 games, AHL
2League exchange rate
27 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+16%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
22.7
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
#179
2022, read alongside his numbers
6If he makes it
36 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Texas Stars | AHL | 6 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0.83 |
| Last season | Texas Stars | AHL | 72 | 24 | 26 | 50 | 0.69 |