Prospect board, #971 overall
Fabian Wagner
Centre, 22.4 years old, Manitoba Moose (AHL), 5′10″ 170 lb, shoots left
Odds he's an NHL regular
9%
Scouting report
Fabian Wagner is a 22-year-old centre with Manitoba Moose in the AHL, a Winnipeg Jets sixth-round pick, 175 overall in 2022. He has 1 goal and 2 assists in 29 games, 0.10 a game, which works out to about 3 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. His team scores 2.5 a game, below the league, and much less when he is not the one scoring. And the five best scorers around him average only 0.57 points a game. He's producing without much support, and the model bumps him up for it. Listed at 5-foot-10 and 170 pounds.
The model's median outcome for him is an AHLer, on a small sample. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 9% chance of becoming an NHL regular. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a small sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age and draft slot like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite<1%
- First-liner<1%
- Middle-sixer2%
- Fourth-liner9%
- Tweener16%
- AHLer (most likely)60%
How he got there
1His line
0.10 P/GP
1 G, 2 A in 29 games, AHL
2League exchange rate
3 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+25%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
22.4
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
#175
2022, read alongside his numbers
6If he makes it
30 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last season | Manitoba Moose | AHL | 29 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.10 |