Prospect board, #376 overall
Danil Zhilkin
Centre, 22.7 years old, Manitoba Moose (AHL), 6′1″ 192 lb, shoots left
Odds he's an NHL regular
25%
Scouting report
Danil Zhilkin is a 22-year-old centre with Manitoba Moose in the AHL, a Winnipeg Jets third-round pick, 77 overall in 2022. He has 2 goals and 3 assists in 6 games, 0.83 a game, which works out to about 27 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Listed at 6-foot-1 and 192 pounds.
His most likely outcome is an AHLer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 25% chance of becoming an NHL regular and 4% of a first-line career. If he makes it, figure about 33 points a season at his best. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age and draft slot like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite<1%
- First-liner4%
- Middle-sixer5%
- Fourth-liner25%
- Tweener43%
- AHLer (most likely)95%
How he got there
1His line
0.83 P/GP
2 G, 3 A in 6 games, AHL
2League exchange rate
27 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+3%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
22.7
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
#77
2022, read alongside his numbers
6If he makes it
33 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Manitoba Moose | AHL | 6 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0.83 |
| Last season | Manitoba Moose | AHL | 62 | 12 | 12 | 24 | 0.39 |