Prospect board, #136 overall
Dmitri Buchelnikov
Left wing, 23.0 years old, CSKA Moskva (KHL), 5′10″ 163 lb, shoots right
Odds he's an NHL regular
34%
Scouting report
Dmitri Buchelnikov is a 23-year-old left wing with CSKA Moskva in the KHL, a St Louis Blues second-round pick, 52 overall in 2022. He has 5 goals and 2 assists in 16 games, 0.44 a game, which works out to about 28 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Listed at 5-foot-10 and 163 pounds.
The model's median outcome for him is a tweener, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 34% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 13% of a first-line career and 12% of turning into one of the league's best. If he makes it, figure about 50 points a season at his best. His odds move most with next season's line, so a big jump would matter more than a repeat.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age and draft slot like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite12%
- First-liner13%
- Middle-sixer17%
- Fourth-liner34%
- Tweener (most likely)65%
- AHLer74%
How he got there
1His line
0.44 P/GP
5 G, 2 A in 16 games, KHL
2League exchange rate
28 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−3%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
23.0
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
#52
2022, read alongside his numbers
6If he makes it
50 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | CSKA Moskva | KHL | 16 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 0.44 |
| Last season | CSKA Moskva | KHL | 44 | 14 | 11 | 25 | 0.57 |