Prospect board, #709 overall
Garrett Brown
Defence, 22.4 years old, Univ. of Denver (NCAA), 6′2″ 178 lb, shoots right
Odds he's an NHL regular
20%
Scouting report
Garrett Brown is a 22-year-old defenceman with Univ. of Denver in the NCAA, a Winnipeg Jets fourth-round pick, 99 overall in 2022. He has 2 goals and 12 assists in 34 games, 0.41 a game, which works out to about 6 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Most of it is setting up other people. At 22.4 he is old for the league, so the model expects him to outscore younger players and gives less credit for it. Listed at 6-foot-2 and 178 pounds.
His most likely outcome is a long shot, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 20% chance of becoming an NHL regular. This is a points model, so it can't see what he does without the puck. Few players with numbers like these made it, though some did.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age and draft slot like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite<1%
- Top-pair1%
- Second-pair4%
- Third-pair20%
- Tweener26%
- AHLer49%
How he got there
1His line
0.41 P/GP
2 G, 12 A in 34 games, NCAA
2League exchange rate
6 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
No change
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
22.4
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
#99
2022, read alongside his numbers
6If he makes it
23 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last season | Univ. of Denver | NCAA | 34 | 2 | 12 | 14 | 0.41 |