Prospect board, #181 overall
Adam Engstrom
Defence, 22.8 years old, Laval Rocket (AHL), 6′2″ 193 lb, shoots left
Odds he's an NHL regular
43%
Scouting report
Adam Engstrom is a 22-year-old defenceman with Laval Rocket in the AHL, a Montreal Canadiens third-round pick, 92 overall in 2022. He has 10 goals and 24 assists in 45 games, 0.76 a game, which works out to about 24 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Most of it is setting up other people. Listed at 6-foot-2 and 193 pounds.
The model's median outcome for him is a tweener, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 43% chance of becoming an NHL regular. If he makes it, figure about 26 points a season at his best. This is a points model, so it can't see what he does without the puck. His odds move most with next season's line, so a big jump would matter more than a repeat.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age and draft slot like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite2%
- Top-pair3%
- Second-pair16%
- Third-pair43%
- Tweener (most likely)69%
- AHLer95%+
How he got there
1His line
0.76 P/GP
10 G, 24 A in 45 games, AHL
2League exchange rate
24 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−2%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
22.8
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
#92
2022, read alongside his numbers
6If he makes it
26 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last season | Laval Rocket | AHL | 45 | 10 | 24 | 34 | 0.76 |