Prospect board, #617 overall
Daniil Orlov
Defence, 22.7 years old, Spartak Moskva (KHL), 6′2″ 180 lb, shoots left
Odds he's an NHL regular
17%
Scouting report
Daniil Orlov is a 22-year-old defenceman with Spartak Moskva in the KHL, a New Jersey Devils fourth-round pick, 110 overall in 2022. He has 1 goal and 6 assists in 14 games, 0.50 a game, which works out to about 32 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Listed at 6-foot-2 and 180 pounds.
The model's median outcome for him is an AHLer, with plenty of games behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 17% chance of becoming an NHL regular and 3% of a top-pair career. This is a points model, so it can't see what he does without the puck. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a full sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age and draft slot like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite1%
- Top-pair3%
- Second-pair7%
- Third-pair17%
- Tweener29%
- AHLer (most likely)56%
How he got there
1His line
0.50 P/GP
1 G, 6 A in 14 games, KHL
2League exchange rate
32 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+8%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
22.7
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
#110
2022, read alongside his numbers
6If he makes it
28 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Spartak Moskva | KHL | 14 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 0.50 |
| Last season | Spartak Moskva | KHL | 66 | 10 | 18 | 28 | 0.42 |