Prospect board, #192 overall
Alex Bump
Left wing, 22.8 years old, Lehigh Valley Phantoms (AHL), 6′0″ 195 lb, shoots left
Odds he's an NHL regular
39%
Scouting report
Alex Bump is a 22-year-old left wing with Lehigh Valley Phantoms in the AHL, a Philadelphia Flyers fifth-round pick, 133 overall in 2022. He has 7 goals and 1 assist in 5 games, 1.60 a game, which works out to about 51 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Most of it is goals. His team scores 3.5 a game, below the league, and much less when he is not the one scoring. Scoring without much help counts for more, so the model nudges him up. Listed at 6-foot-0 and 195 pounds.
His most likely outcome is a tweener, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 39% chance of becoming an NHL regular. If he makes it, figure about 36 points a season at his best. His odds move most with next season's line, so a big jump would matter more than a repeat.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age and draft slot like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite2%
- First-liner2%
- Middle-sixer17%
- Fourth-liner39%
- Tweener (most likely)70%
- AHLer94%
How he got there
1His line
1.60 P/GP
7 G, 1 A in 5 games, AHL
2League exchange rate
51 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+15%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
22.8
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
#133
2022, read alongside his numbers
6If he makes it
36 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Lehigh Valley Phantoms | AHL | 5 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 1.60 |
| Last season | Lehigh Valley Phantoms | AHL | 36 | 11 | 15 | 26 | 0.72 |