Prospect board, #1130 overall
Joe Fleming
Right wing, 23.2 years old, Henderson Silver Knights (AHL), 6′1″ 210 lb, shoots right
Odds he's an NHL regular
5%
Scouting report
Joe Fleming is a 23-year-old right wing with Henderson Silver Knights in the AHL, on the Vegas Golden Knights prospect list. He has 1 goal and 0 assists in 5 games, 0.20 a game, which works out to about 6 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. His team scores 2.8 a game, below the league, and much less when he is not the one scoring. Scoring without much help counts for more, so the model nudges him up. Listed at 6-foot-1 and 210 pounds.
His most likely outcome is an AHLer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 5% chance of becoming an NHL regular. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite<1%
- First-liner<1%
- Middle-sixer<1%
- Fourth-liner5%
- Tweener6%
- AHLer (most likely)76%
How he got there
1His line
0.20 P/GP
1 G, 0 A in 5 games, AHL
2League exchange rate
6 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+8%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
23.2
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Passed over, read as a pick after the last one
6If he makes it
28 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Henderson Silver Knights | AHL | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.20 |
| Last season | Henderson Silver Knights | AHL | 60 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 0.23 |