Prospect board, #92 overall
Colby Barlow
Left wing, 21.6 years old, Manitoba Moose (AHL), 6′0″ 190 lb, shoots left
Odds he's an NHL regular
62%
Scouting report
Colby Barlow is a 21-year-old left wing with Manitoba Moose in the AHL, a Winnipeg Jets first-round pick, 18 overall in 2023. He has 3 goals and 2 assists in 6 games, 0.83 a game, which works out to about 27 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. His team scores 4.8 a game, one of the better offences around. And the five best scorers around him average 1.23 points a game, well above the norm. Linemates like that pad a stat line, so the model takes some of his points back. Listed at 6-foot-0 and 190 pounds.
His most likely outcome is a fourth-liner, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 62% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 10% of a first-line career and 3% of turning into one of the league's best. If he makes it, figure about 37 points a season at his best. A fourth-line job tends to come from penalty killing and faceoffs more than from scoring.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age and draft slot like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite3%
- First-liner10%
- Middle-sixer26%
- Fourth-liner (most likely)62%
- Tweener86%
- AHLer95%+
How he got there
1His line
0.83 P/GP
3 G, 2 A in 6 games, AHL
2League exchange rate
27 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−24%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
21.6
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
#18
2023, read alongside his numbers
6If he makes it
37 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Manitoba Moose | AHL | 6 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 0.83 |
| Last season | Manitoba Moose | AHL | 65 | 8 | 8 | 16 | 0.25 |