Prospect board, #176 overall
Tristan Bertucci
Defence, 21.2 years old, Texas Stars (AHL), 6′2″ 191 lb, shoots left
Odds he's an NHL regular
45%
Scouting report
Tristan Bertucci is a 21-year-old defenceman with Texas Stars in the AHL, a Dallas Stars second-round pick, 61 overall in 2023. He has 1 goal and 1 assist in 5 games, 0.40 a game, which works out to about 13 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. His team scores 2.5 a game, below the league, and much less when he is not the one scoring. He's producing without much support, and the model bumps him up for it.
At 21.2 he is among the youngest regulars in the league, and age matters more than any single stat in these projections. Listed at 6-foot-2 and 191 pounds. The model's median outcome for him is a tweener, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 45% chance of becoming an NHL regular and 9% of a top-pair career. If he makes it, figure about 24 points a season at his best. This is a points model, so it can't see what he does without the puck. His odds move most with next season's line, so a big jump would matter more than a repeat.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age and draft slot like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite1%
- Top-pair9%
- Second-pair9%
- Third-pair45%
- Tweener (most likely)69%
- AHLer95%+
How he got there
1His line
0.40 P/GP
1 G, 1 A in 5 games, AHL
2League exchange rate
13 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+17%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
21.2
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
#61
2023, read alongside his numbers
6If he makes it
24 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Texas Stars | AHL | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.40 |
| Last season | Texas Stars | AHL | 63 | 5 | 19 | 24 | 0.38 |