Prospect board, #140 overall
Luca Cagnoni
Defence, 21.7 years old, San Jose Barracuda (AHL), 5′9″ 180 lb, shoots left
Odds he's an NHL regular
49%
Scouting report
Luca Cagnoni is a 21-year-old defenceman with San Jose Barracuda in the AHL, a San Jose Sharks fourth-round pick, 123 overall in 2023. He has 8 goals and 35 assists in 67 games, 0.64 a game, which works out to about 20 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Most of it is setting up other people. Listed at 5-foot-9 and 180 pounds.
The model's median outcome for him is a tweener, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 49% chance of becoming an NHL regular and 7% of a top-pair career. If he makes it, figure about 27 points a season at his best. This is a points model, so it can't see what he does without the puck. His odds move most with next season's line, so a big jump would matter more than a repeat.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age and draft slot like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite1%
- Top-pair7%
- Second-pair20%
- Third-pair49%
- Tweener (most likely)68%
- AHLer95%+
How he got there
1His line
0.64 P/GP
8 G, 35 A in 67 games, AHL
2League exchange rate
21 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−5%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
21.7
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
#123
2023, read alongside his numbers
6If he makes it
27 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last season | San Jose Barracuda | AHL | 67 | 8 | 35 | 43 | 0.64 |