Prospect board, #50 overall
Andrew Cristall
Left wing, 21.6 years old, Hershey Bears (AHL), 5′10″ 167 lb, shoots left
Odds he's an NHL regular
73%
Scouting report
Andrew Cristall is a 21-year-old left wing with Hershey Bears in the AHL, a Washington Capitals second-round pick, 40 overall in 2023. He has 0 goals and 8 assists in 6 games, 1.33 a game, which works out to about 43 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Most of it is setting up other people. Listed at 5-foot-10 and 167 pounds.
His most likely outcome is a fourth-liner, with plenty of games behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 73% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 21% of a first-line career and 5% of turning into one of the league's best. If he makes it, figure about 44 points a season at his best. A fourth-line job tends to come from penalty killing and faceoffs more than from scoring.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a full sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age and draft slot like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite5%
- First-liner21%
- Middle-sixer46%
- Fourth-liner (most likely)73%
- Tweener87%
- AHLer95%+
How he got there
1His line
1.33 P/GP
0 G, 8 A in 6 games, AHL
2League exchange rate
43 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+2%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
21.6
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
#40
2023, read alongside his numbers
6If he makes it
44 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Hershey Bears | AHL | 6 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 1.33 |
| Last season | Hershey Bears | AHL | 72 | 20 | 40 | 60 | 0.83 |