Ethan Gauthier

Right wing, 21.6 years old, Syracuse Crunch (AHL), 6′0″ 190 lb, shoots right

Odds he's an NHL regular

47%

Tweener

Scouting report

Ethan Gauthier is a 21-year-old right wing with Syracuse Crunch in the AHL, a Tampa Bay Lightning second-round pick, 37 overall in 2023. He has 0 goals and 1 assist in 5 games, 0.20 a game, which works out to about 6 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. His team scores 2.3 a game, below the league, and much less when he is not the one scoring. And the five best scorers around him average only 0.69 points a game. Scoring without much help counts for more, so the model nudges him up. Listed at 6-foot-0 and 190 pounds.

The model's median outcome for him is a tweener, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 47% chance of becoming an NHL regular and 4% of a first-line career. If he makes it, figure about 32 points a season at his best. His odds move most with next season's line, so a big jump would matter more than a repeat.

Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.

His odds

His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age and draft slot like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.

Elite<1%
First-liner4%
Middle-sixer11%
Fourth-liner47%
Tweener (most likely)64%
AHLer95%+

How he got there

1His line
0.20 P/GP
0 G, 1 A in 5 games, AHL
2League exchange rate
6 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+23%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
21.6
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
#37
2023, read alongside his numbers
6If he makes it
32 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars

Season lines

Season	Team	League	GP	G	A	P	P/GP
This season	Syracuse Crunch	AHL	5	0	1	1	0.20
Last season	Syracuse Crunch	AHL	56	12	15	27	0.48