Prospect board, #278 overall
Riley Heidt
Centre, 21.5 years old, Iowa Wild (AHL), 5′10″ 178 lb, shoots left
Odds he's an NHL regular
30%
Scouting report
Riley Heidt is a 21-year-old centre with Iowa Wild in the AHL, a Minnesota Wild second-round pick, 64 overall in 2023. He has 1 goal and 2 assists in 7 games, 0.43 a game, which works out to about 14 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. His team scores 2.3 a game, below the league, and much less when he is not the one scoring. And the five best scorers around him average only 0.68 points a game. He's producing without much support, and the model bumps him up for it. Listed at 5-foot-10 and 178 pounds.
The model's median outcome for him is an AHLer, with plenty of games behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 30% chance of becoming an NHL regular and 4% of a first-line career. If he makes it, figure about 36 points a season at his best. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a full sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age and draft slot like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite<1%
- First-liner4%
- Middle-sixer12%
- Fourth-liner30%
- Tweener49%
- AHLer (most likely)95%+
How he got there
1His line
0.43 P/GP
1 G, 2 A in 7 games, AHL
2League exchange rate
14 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+29%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
21.5
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
#64
2023, read alongside his numbers
6If he makes it
36 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Iowa Wild | AHL | 7 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.43 |
| Last season | Iowa Wild | AHL | 71 | 8 | 17 | 25 | 0.35 |