Prospect board, #30 overall
Nick Lardis
Left wing, 21.2 years old, Rockford IceHogs (AHL), 5′11″ 185 lb, shoots left
Odds he's an NHL regular
64%
Scouting report
Nick Lardis is a 21-year-old left wing with Rockford IceHogs in the AHL, a Chicago Blackhawks third-round pick, 67 overall in 2023. He has 1 goal and 1 assist in 3 games, 0.67 a game, which works out to about 21 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. His team scores 1.5 a game, below the league, and much less when he is not the one scoring. And the five best scorers around him average only 0.67 points a game. Scoring without much help counts for more, so the model nudges him up.
At 21.2 he is among the youngest regulars in the league, and age matters more than any single stat in these projections. Listed at 5-foot-11 and 185 pounds. His most likely outcome is a fourth-liner, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 64% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 37% of a first-line career and 12% of turning into one of the league's best. If he makes it, figure about 54 points a season at his best. A fourth-line job tends to come from penalty killing and faceoffs more than from scoring.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age and draft slot like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite12%
- First-liner37%
- Middle-sixer46%
- Fourth-liner (most likely)64%
- Tweener88%
- AHLer95%+
How he got there
1His line
0.67 P/GP
1 G, 1 A in 3 games, AHL
2League exchange rate
21 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+36%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
21.2
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
#67
2023, read alongside his numbers
6If he makes it
54 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Rockford IceHogs | AHL | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.67 |
| Last season | Rockford IceHogs | AHL | 35 | 18 | 14 | 32 | 0.91 |