Tanner Molendyk

Defence, 21.6 years old, Milwaukee Admirals (AHL), 6′0″ 190 lb, shoots left

Odds he's an NHL regular

55%

Third-pair

Scouting report

Tanner Molendyk is a 21-year-old defenceman with Milwaukee Admirals in the AHL, a Nashville Predators first-round pick, 24 overall in 2023. He has 0 goals and 2 assists in 4 games, 0.50 a game, which works out to about 16 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. His team scores 2.5 a game, below the league, and much less when he is not the one scoring. He's producing without much support, and the model bumps him up for it. Listed at 6-foot-0 and 190 pounds.

The model's median outcome for him is a third-pair defenceman, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 55% chance of becoming an NHL regular and 10% of a top-pair career. If he makes it, figure about 28 points a season at his best. This is a points model, so it can't see what he does without the puck. A third-pair job tends to come down to defending more than points.

Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.

His odds

His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age and draft slot like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.

Elite2%
Top-pair10%
Second-pair24%
Third-pair (most likely)55%
Tweener80%
AHLer95%+

How he got there

1His line
0.50 P/GP
0 G, 2 A in 4 games, AHL
2League exchange rate
16 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+10%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
21.6
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
#24
2023, read alongside his numbers
6If he makes it
28 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars

Season lines

Season	Team	League	GP	G	A	P	P/GP
This season	Milwaukee Admirals	AHL	4	0	2	2	0.50
Last season	Milwaukee Admirals	AHL	60	4	19	23	0.38