GRIT & GF

Prospect board, #875 overall

Zach Nehring

Right wing, 21.5 years old, Western Michigan Univ. (NCAA), 6′3″ 179 lb, shoots right

Odds he's an NHL regular

12%

Long shot

Scouting report

Zach Nehring is a 21-year-old right wing with Western Michigan Univ. in the NCAA, a Winnipeg Jets third-round pick, 82 overall in 2023. He has 2 goals and 1 assist in 4 games, 0.75 a game, which works out to about 12 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Listed at 6-foot-3 and 179 pounds.

The model's median outcome for him is a long shot, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 12% chance of becoming an NHL regular. Few players with numbers like these made it, though some did.

Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.

His odds

His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age and draft slot like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.

  1. Elite<1%
  2. First-liner1%
  3. Middle-sixer5%
  4. Fourth-liner12%
  5. Tweener17%
  6. AHLer43%

How he got there

  1. 1His line

    0.75 P/GP

    2 G, 1 A in 4 games, NCAA

  2. 2League exchange rate

    12 pts

    NHL-equivalent points over 82

  3. 3Team around him

    −3%

    Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster

  4. 4Age

    21.5

    On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20

  5. 5Draft slot

    #82

    2023, read alongside his numbers

  6. 6If he makes it

    36 pts

    Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars

Season lines

SeasonTeamLeagueGPGAPP/GP
This seasonWestern Michigan Univ.NCAA42130.75
Last seasonWestern Michigan Univ.NCAA35512170.49