Prospect board, #45 overall
David Reinbacher
Defence, 21.9 years old, Laval Rocket (AHL), 6′3″ 207 lb, shoots right
Odds he's an NHL regular
70%
Scouting report
David Reinbacher is a 21-year-old defenceman with Laval Rocket in the AHL, a Montreal Canadiens first-round pick, 5 overall in 2023. He has 0 goals and 2 assists in 4 games, 0.50 a game, which works out to about 16 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. His team scores 4.2 a game, one of the better offences around. And the five best scorers around him average 1.47 points a game, well above the norm. Linemates like that pad a stat line, so the model takes some of his points back. Listed at 6-foot-3 and 207 pounds.
The model's median outcome for him is a third-pair defenceman, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 70% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 27% of a top-pair career and 5% of turning into one of the league's best. If he makes it, figure about 34 points a season at his best. This is a points model, so it can't see what he does without the puck. A third-pair job tends to come down to defending more than points.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age and draft slot like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite5%
- Top-pair27%
- Second-pair45%
- Third-pair (most likely)70%
- Tweener94%
- AHLer95%+
How he got there
1His line
0.50 P/GP
0 G, 2 A in 4 games, AHL
2League exchange rate
16 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−27%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
21.9
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
#5
2023, read alongside his numbers
6If he makes it
35 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Laval Rocket | AHL | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.50 |
| Last season | Laval Rocket | AHL | 57 | 5 | 19 | 24 | 0.42 |