Prospect board, #137 overall
Gracyn Sawchyn
Centre, 21.6 years old, Charlotte Checkers (AHL), 5′11″ 157 lb, shoots right
Odds he's an NHL regular
41%
Scouting report
Gracyn Sawchyn is a 21-year-old centre with Charlotte Checkers in the AHL, a Florida Panthers second-round pick, 63 overall in 2023. He has 0 goals and 2 assists in 6 games, 0.33 a game, which works out to about 11 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. The five best scorers around him average only 0.55 points a game. He's producing without much support, and the model bumps him up for it. Listed at 5-foot-11 and 157 pounds.
The model's median outcome for him is a tweener, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 41% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 7% of a first-line career and 4% of turning into one of the league's best. If he makes it, figure about 44 points a season at his best. His odds move most with next season's line, so a big jump would matter more than a repeat.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age and draft slot like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite4%
- First-liner7%
- Middle-sixer27%
- Fourth-liner41%
- Tweener (most likely)62%
- AHLer95%
How he got there
1His line
0.33 P/GP
0 G, 2 A in 6 games, AHL
2League exchange rate
11 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+23%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
21.6
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
#63
2023, read alongside his numbers
6If he makes it
44 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Charlotte Checkers | AHL | 6 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.33 |
| Last season | Charlotte Checkers | AHL | 35 | 6 | 17 | 23 | 0.66 |