Prospect board, #151 overall
Jayson Shaugabay
Right wing, 21.4 years old, Univ. of Minnesota-Duluth (NCAA), 5′9″ 173 lb, shoots right
Odds he's an NHL regular
44%
Scouting report
Jayson Shaugabay is a 21-year-old right wing with Univ. of Minnesota-Duluth in the NCAA, a Tampa Bay Lightning fourth-round pick, 115 overall in 2023. He has 1 goal and 8 assists in 6 games, 1.50 a game, which works out to about 23 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Most of it is setting up other people. Listed at 5-foot-9 and 173 pounds.
The model's median outcome for him is a tweener, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 44% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 6% of a first-line career and 2% of turning into one of the league's best. If he makes it, figure about 41 points a season at his best. His odds move most with next season's line, so a big jump would matter more than a repeat.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age and draft slot like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite2%
- First-liner6%
- Middle-sixer28%
- Fourth-liner44%
- Tweener (most likely)58%
- AHLer82%
How he got there
1His line
1.50 P/GP
1 G, 8 A in 6 games, NCAA
2League exchange rate
23 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+5%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
21.4
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
#115
2023, read alongside his numbers
6If he makes it
41 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Univ. of Minnesota-Duluth | NCAA | 6 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 1.50 |
| Last season | Univ. of Minnesota-Duluth | NCAA | 40 | 11 | 32 | 43 | 1.07 |