Prospect board, #380 overall
Jakub Stancl
Centre, 21.4 years old, Springfield Thunderbirds (AHL), 6′3″ 217 lb, shoots left
Odds he's an NHL regular
30%
Scouting report
Jakub Stancl is a 21-year-old centre with Springfield Thunderbirds in the AHL, a St Louis Blues fourth-round pick, 106 overall in 2023. He has 1 goal and 1 assist in 6 games, 0.33 a game, which works out to about 11 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. His team scores 2.2 a game, below the league, and much less when he is not the one scoring. Scoring without much help counts for more, so the model nudges him up. Listed at 6-foot-3 and 217 pounds.
The model's median outcome for him is an AHLer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 30% chance of becoming an NHL regular. If he makes it, figure about 31 points a season at his best. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age and draft slot like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite<1%
- First-liner2%
- Middle-sixer6%
- Fourth-liner30%
- Tweener40%
- AHLer (most likely)92%
How he got there
1His line
0.33 P/GP
1 G, 1 A in 6 games, AHL
2League exchange rate
11 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+27%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
21.4
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
#106
2023, read alongside his numbers
6If he makes it
31 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Springfield Thunderbirds | AHL | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.33 |
| Last season | Springfield Thunderbirds | AHL | 60 | 9 | 10 | 19 | 0.32 |