Charlie Stramel

Centre, 21.9 years old, Iowa Wild (AHL), 6′3″ 212 lb, shoots right

Odds he's an NHL regular

70%

Middle-sixer

Scouting report

Charlie Stramel is a 21-year-old centre with Iowa Wild in the AHL, a Minnesota Wild first-round pick, 21 overall in 2023. He has 0 goals and 2 assists in 7 games, 0.29 a game, which works out to about 9 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. His team scores 2.3 a game, below the league, and much less when he is not the one scoring. And the five best scorers around him average only 0.68 points a game. He's producing without much support, and the model bumps him up for it. Listed at 6-foot-3 and 212 pounds.

His most likely outcome is a middle-sixer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 70% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 12% of a first-line career and 8% of turning into one of the league's best. If he makes it, figure about 46 points a season at his best. Moving up a tier would take scoring well above his league's top-line rate.

Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.

His odds

His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age and draft slot like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.

Elite8%
First-liner12%
Middle-sixer (most likely)53%
Fourth-liner70%
Tweener89%
AHLer95%+

How he got there

1His line
0.29 P/GP
0 G, 2 A in 7 games, AHL
2League exchange rate
9 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+24%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
21.9
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
#21
2023, read alongside his numbers
6If he makes it
46 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars

Season lines

Season	Team	League	GP	G	A	P	P/GP
This season	Iowa Wild	AHL	7	0	2	2	0.29
Last season	Michigan State Univ.	NCAA	37	19	25	44	1.19