Prospect board, #58 overall
Brayden Yager
Centre, 21.7 years old, Manitoba Moose (AHL), 5′11″ 180 lb, shoots right
Odds he's an NHL regular
68%
Scouting report
Brayden Yager is a 21-year-old centre with Manitoba Moose in the AHL, a Winnipeg Jets first-round pick, 14 overall in 2023. He has 5 goals and 4 assists in 6 games, 1.50 a game, which works out to about 48 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Most of it is goals. His team scores 4.8 a game, one of the better offences around. Some of those points come from the company he keeps, and the model discounts them. Listed at 5-foot-11 and 180 pounds.
The model's median outcome for him is a fourth-liner, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 68% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 13% of a first-line career and 6% of turning into one of the league's best. If he makes it, figure about 44 points a season at his best. A fourth-line job tends to come from penalty killing and faceoffs more than from scoring.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age and draft slot like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite6%
- First-liner13%
- Middle-sixer47%
- Fourth-liner (most likely)68%
- Tweener91%
- AHLer95%+
How he got there
1His line
1.50 P/GP
5 G, 4 A in 6 games, AHL
2League exchange rate
48 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−19%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
21.7
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
#14
2023, read alongside his numbers
6If he makes it
44 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Manitoba Moose | AHL | 6 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 1.50 |
| Last season | Manitoba Moose | AHL | 68 | 10 | 20 | 30 | 0.44 |