Prospect board, #579 overall
Patrick Thomas
Centre, 22.1 years old, Hershey Bears (AHL), 6′0″ 172 lb, shoots left
Odds he's an NHL regular
19%
Scouting report
Patrick Thomas is a 22-year-old centre with Hershey Bears in the AHL, a Washington Capitals fourth-round pick, 104 overall in 2023. He has 1 goal and 2 assists in 7 games, 0.43 a game, which works out to about 14 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Listed at 6-foot-0 and 172 pounds.
His most likely outcome is an AHLer, on a small sample. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 19% chance of becoming an NHL regular. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a small sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age and draft slot like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite<1%
- First-liner3%
- Middle-sixer9%
- Fourth-liner19%
- Tweener28%
- AHLer (most likely)64%
How he got there
1His line
0.43 P/GP
1 G, 2 A in 7 games, AHL
2League exchange rate
14 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+3%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
22.1
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
#104
2023, read alongside his numbers
6If he makes it
37 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last season | Hershey Bears | AHL | 7 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.43 |