GRIT & GF

Prospect board, #337 overall

Eric Pohlkamp

Defence, 22.5 years old, San Jose Barracuda (AHL), 5′11″ 200 lb, shoots right

Odds he's an NHL regular

28%

AHLer

Scouting report

Eric Pohlkamp is a 22-year-old defenceman with San Jose Barracuda in the AHL, a San Jose Sharks fifth-round pick, 132 overall in 2023. He has 0 goals and 5 assists in 6 games, 0.83 a game, which works out to about 27 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Listed at 5-foot-11 and 200 pounds.

His most likely outcome is an AHLer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 28% chance of becoming an NHL regular and 3% of a top-pair career. If he makes it, figure about 26 points a season at his best. This is a points model, so it can't see what he does without the puck. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.

Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.

His odds

His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age and draft slot like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.

  1. Elite<1%
  2. Top-pair3%
  3. Second-pair10%
  4. Third-pair28%
  5. Tweener49%
  6. AHLer (most likely)78%

How he got there

  1. 1His line

    0.83 P/GP

    0 G, 5 A in 6 games, AHL

  2. 2League exchange rate

    27 pts

    NHL-equivalent points over 82

  3. 3Team around him

    −4%

    Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster

  4. 4Age

    22.5

    On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20

  5. 5Draft slot

    #132

    2023, read alongside his numbers

  6. 6If he makes it

    26 pts

    Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars

Season lines

SeasonTeamLeagueGPGAPP/GP
This seasonSan Jose BarracudaAHL60550.83
Last seasonUniv. of DenverNCAA431821390.91