Prospect board, #219 overall
Mikhail Ilyin
Right wing, 21.6 years old, Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins (AHL), 6′3″ 215 lb, shoots left
Odds he's an NHL regular
33%
Scouting report
Mikhail Ilyin is a 21-year-old right wing with Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins in the AHL, a Pittsburgh Penguins fifth-round pick, 142 overall in 2023. He has 2 goals and 5 assists in 6 games, 1.17 a game, which works out to about 37 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. His team scores 4.2 a game, one of the better offences around. And the five best scorers around him average 1.27 points a game, well above the norm. Linemates like that pad a stat line, so the model takes some of his points back. Listed at 6-foot-3 and 215 pounds.
His most likely outcome is an AHLer, with plenty of games behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 33% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 10% of a first-line career and 3% of turning into one of the league's best. If he makes it, figure about 46 points a season at his best. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a full sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age and draft slot like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite3%
- First-liner10%
- Middle-sixer22%
- Fourth-liner33%
- Tweener42%
- AHLer (most likely)73%
How he got there
1His line
1.17 P/GP
2 G, 5 A in 6 games, AHL
2League exchange rate
37 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−20%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
21.6
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
#142
2023, read alongside his numbers
6If he makes it
46 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | AHL | 6 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 1.17 |
| Last season | Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | AHL | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.40 |
| Last season | Severstal Cherepovets | KHL | 68 | 14 | 30 | 44 | 0.65 |