GRIT & GF

Prospect board, #1217 overall

Timur Mukhanov

Left wing, 21.3 years old, Dizel Penza (VHL), 5′7″ 178 lb, shoots right

Odds he's an NHL regular

5%

Long shot

Scouting report

Timur Mukhanov is a 21-year-old left wing with Dizel Penza in the VHL, a Carolina Hurricanes sixth-round pick, 163 overall in 2023. He has 3 goals and 7 assists in 14 games, 0.71 a game, which works out to about 18 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Most of it is setting up other people. That is up from 0.39 a game last season.

At 21.2 he is among the youngest regulars in the league, and age matters more than any single stat in these projections. Listed at 5-foot-7 and 178 pounds. The model's median outcome for him is a long shot, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 5% chance of becoming an NHL regular. Few players with numbers like these made it, though some did.

Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.

His odds

His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age and draft slot like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.

  1. Elite<1%
  2. First-liner1%
  3. Middle-sixer4%
  4. Fourth-liner5%
  5. Tweener14%
  6. AHLer27%

How he got there

  1. 1His line

    0.71 P/GP

    3 G, 7 A in 14 games, VHL

  2. 2League exchange rate

    18 pts

    NHL-equivalent points over 82

  3. 3Team around him

    +3%

    Credit for a weak offence or thin help

  4. 4Age

    21.3

    On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20

  5. 5Draft slot

    #163

    2023, read alongside his numbers

  6. 6If he makes it

    48 pts

    Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars

Season lines

SeasonTeamLeagueGPGAPP/GP
This seasonDizel PenzaVHL1437100.71
Last seasonSeverstal CherepovetsKHL273250.19
Last seasonAlmaz CherepovetsMHL82460.75
Last seasonHK TambovVHL62350.83