GRIT & GF

Prospect board, #1503 overall

Matt Copponi

Centre, 23.3 years old, Bakersfield Condors (AHL), 5′11″ 174 lb, shoots right

Odds he's an NHL regular

4%

Long shot

Scouting report

Matt Copponi is a 23-year-old centre with Bakersfield Condors in the AHL, a Edmonton Oilers seventh-round pick, 216 overall in 2023. He has 2 goals and 1 assist in 29 games, 0.10 a game, which works out to about 3 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Listed at 5-foot-11 and 174 pounds.

The model's median outcome for him is a long shot, on a small sample. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 4% chance of becoming an NHL regular. Few players with numbers like these made it, though some did.

Written by the model from his numbers, on a small sample. prospects-0.3.

His odds

His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age and draft slot like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.

  1. Elite<1%
  2. First-liner<1%
  3. Middle-sixer<1%
  4. Fourth-liner4%
  5. Tweener5%
  6. AHLer36%

How he got there

  1. 1His line

    0.10 P/GP

    2 G, 1 A in 29 games, AHL

  2. 2League exchange rate

    3 pts

    NHL-equivalent points over 82

  3. 3Team around him

    −7%

    Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster

  4. 4Age

    23.3

    On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20

  5. 5Draft slot

    #216

    2023, read alongside his numbers

  6. 6If he makes it

    27 pts

    Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars

Season lines

SeasonTeamLeagueGPGAPP/GP
Last seasonBakersfield CondorsAHL292130.10