Prospect board, #213 overall
John Mustard
Centre, 20.1 years old, Providence College (NCAA), 6′1″ 180 lb, shoots left
Odds he's an NHL regular
37%
Scouting report
John Mustard is a 20-year-old centre with Providence College in the NCAA, a Chicago Blackhawks third-round pick, 67 overall in 2024. He has 1 goal and 1 assist in 3 games, 0.67 a game, which works out to about 10 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Listed at 6-foot-1 and 180 pounds.
The model's median outcome for him is a tweener, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 37% chance of becoming an NHL regular and 7% of a first-line career. If he makes it, figure about 38 points a season at his best. His odds move most with next season's line, so a big jump would matter more than a repeat.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age and draft slot like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite1%
- First-liner7%
- Middle-sixer17%
- Fourth-liner37%
- Tweener (most likely)57%
- AHLer83%
How he got there
1His line
0.67 P/GP
1 G, 1 A in 3 games, NCAA
2League exchange rate
10 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−3%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
20.1
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
#67
2024, read alongside his numbers
6If he makes it
38 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Providence College | NCAA | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.67 |
| Last season | Providence College | NCAA | 36 | 17 | 12 | 29 | 0.81 |