Prospect board, #625 overall
Eriks Mateiko
Left wing, 20.8 years old, Hershey Bears (AHL), 6′5″ 208 lb, shoots left
Odds he's an NHL regular
22%
Scouting report
Eriks Mateiko is a 20-year-old left wing with Hershey Bears in the AHL, a Washington Capitals third-round pick, 90 overall in 2024. He has 2 goals and 0 assists in 6 games, 0.33 a game, which works out to about 11 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate.
At 20.8 he is among the youngest regulars in the league, and age matters more than any single stat in these projections. Listed at 6-foot-5 and 208 pounds. His most likely outcome is an AHLer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 22% chance of becoming an NHL regular. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age and draft slot like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite<1%
- First-liner1%
- Middle-sixer4%
- Fourth-liner22%
- Tweener29%
- AHLer (most likely)66%
How he got there
1His line
0.33 P/GP
2 G, 0 A in 6 games, AHL
2League exchange rate
11 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+3%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
20.8
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
#90
2024, read alongside his numbers
6If he makes it
30 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Hershey Bears | AHL | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.33 |
| Last season | Hershey Bears | AHL | 27 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0.22 |