Prospect board, #217 overall
Lukas Fischer
Defence, 20.0 years old, Springfield Thunderbirds (AHL), 6′3″ 185 lb, shoots left
Odds he's an NHL regular
44%
Scouting report
Lukas Fischer is a 20-year-old defenceman with Springfield Thunderbirds in the AHL, a St Louis Blues second-round pick, 56 overall in 2024. He has 0 goals and 0 assists in 5 games, 0.00 a game, which works out to about 0 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. His team scores 2.2 a game, below the league, and much less when he is not the one scoring. Scoring without much help counts for more, so the model nudges him up.
At 20.0 he is among the youngest regulars in the league, and age matters more than any single stat in these projections. Listed at 6-foot-3 and 185 pounds. His most likely outcome is a tweener, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 44% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 5% of a top-pair career and 2% of turning into one of the league's best. If he makes it, figure about 25 points a season at his best. This is a points model, so it can't see what he does without the puck. His odds move most with next season's line, so a big jump would matter more than a repeat.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age and draft slot like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite2%
- Top-pair5%
- Second-pair12%
- Third-pair44%
- Tweener (most likely)61%
- AHLer73%
How he got there
1His line
0.00 P/GP
0 G, 0 A in 5 games, AHL
2League exchange rate
0 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+22%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
20.0
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
#56
2024, read alongside his numbers
6If he makes it
25 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Springfield Thunderbirds | AHL | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Last season | Soo Greyhounds | OHL | 65 | 8 | 36 | 44 | 0.68 |