Prospect board, #839 overall
Melvin Fernström
Right wing, 20.5 years old, Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins (AHL), 6′2″ 207 lb, shoots right
Odds he's an NHL regular
10%
Scouting report
Melvin Fernström is a 20-year-old right wing with Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins in the AHL, a Pittsburgh Penguins third-round pick, 93 overall in 2024. He has 1 goal and 0 assists in 3 games, 0.33 a game, which works out to about 11 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. His team scores 4.2 a game, one of the better offences around. And the five best scorers around him average 1.30 points a game, well above the norm. Linemates like that pad a stat line, so the model takes some of his points back.
At 20.5 he is among the youngest regulars in the league, and age matters more than any single stat in these projections. Listed at 6-foot-2 and 207 pounds. The model's median outcome for him is a long shot, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 10% chance of becoming an NHL regular. Few players with numbers like these made it, though some did.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age and draft slot like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite<1%
- First-liner3%
- Middle-sixer6%
- Fourth-liner10%
- Tweener23%
- AHLer41%
How he got there
1His line
0.33 P/GP
1 G, 0 A in 3 games, AHL
2League exchange rate
11 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−23%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
20.5
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
#93
2024, read alongside his numbers
6If he makes it
41 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | AHL | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.33 |
| Last season | Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | AHL | 14 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 0.57 |
| Last season | Örebro HK | SHL | 36 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0.11 |