Prospect board, #234 overall
Alfons Freij
Defence, 20.6 years old, Manitoba Moose (AHL), 6′1″ 187 lb, shoots left
Odds he's an NHL regular
41%
Scouting report
Alfons Freij is a 20-year-old defenceman with Manitoba Moose in the AHL, a Winnipeg Jets second-round pick, 37 overall in 2024. He has 2 goals and 1 assist in 6 games, 0.50 a game, which works out to about 16 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. His team scores 4.8 a game, one of the better offences around. And the five best scorers around him average 1.23 points a game, well above the norm. Some of those points come from the company he keeps, and the model discounts them.
At 20.6 he is among the youngest regulars in the league, and age matters more than any single stat in these projections. Listed at 6-foot-1 and 187 pounds. The model's median outcome for him is a tweener, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 41% chance of becoming an NHL regular and 3% of a top-pair career. If he makes it, figure about 22 points a season at his best. This is a points model, so it can't see what he does without the puck. His odds move most with next season's line, so a big jump would matter more than a repeat.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age and draft slot like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite<1%
- Top-pair3%
- Second-pair7%
- Third-pair41%
- Tweener (most likely)72%
- AHLer87%
How he got there
1His line
0.50 P/GP
2 G, 1 A in 6 games, AHL
2League exchange rate
16 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−26%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
20.6
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
#37
2024, read alongside his numbers
6If he makes it
22 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Manitoba Moose | AHL | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0.50 |
| Last season | Manitoba Moose | AHL | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.20 |
| Last season | Timrå IK | SHL | 42 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 0.26 |