Tarin Smith

Defence, 20.5 years old, Everett Silvertips (WHL), 6′1″ 189 lb, shoots left

Odds he's an NHL regular

17%

AHLer

Scouting report

Tarin Smith is a 20-year-old defenceman with Everett Silvertips in the WHL, a Anaheim Ducks third-round pick, 79 overall in 2024. He has 16 goals and 55 assists in 65 games, 1.09 a game, which works out to about 13 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Most of it is setting up other people. His team scores 4.5 a game, one of the better offences around. And the five best scorers around him average 1.40 points a game, well above the norm. Linemates like that pad a stat line, so the model takes some of his points back. At 20.5 he is old for the league, so the model expects him to outscore younger players and gives less credit for it. Listed at 6-foot-1 and 189 pounds.

The model's median outcome for him is an AHLer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 17% chance of becoming an NHL regular. This is a points model, so it can't see what he does without the puck. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.

Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.

His odds

His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age and draft slot like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.

Elite2%
Top-pair2%
Second-pair3%
Third-pair17%
Tweener23%
AHLer (most likely)58%

How he got there

1His line
1.09 P/GP
16 G, 55 A in 65 games, WHL
2League exchange rate
13 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−19%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
20.5
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
#79
2024, read alongside his numbers
6If he makes it
24 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars

Season lines

Season	Team	League	GP	G	A	P	P/GP
Last season	Everett Silvertips	WHL	65	16	55	71	1.09