Prospect board, #301 overall
Kevin He
Left wing, 20.4 years old, Manitoba Moose (AHL), 5′11″ 182 lb, shoots left
Odds he's an NHL regular
28%
Scouting report
Kevin He is a 20-year-old left wing with Manitoba Moose in the AHL, a Winnipeg Jets fourth-round pick, 109 overall in 2024. He has 3 goals and 2 assists in 6 games, 0.83 a game, which works out to about 27 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. His team scores 4.8 a game, one of the better offences around. And the five best scorers around him average 1.23 points a game, well above the norm. Some of those points come from the company he keeps, and the model discounts them.
At 20.4 he is among the youngest regulars in the league, and age matters more than any single stat in these projections. Listed at 5-foot-11 and 182 pounds. The model's median outcome for him is an AHLer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 28% chance of becoming an NHL regular and 7% of a first-line career. If he makes it, figure about 42 points a season at his best. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age and draft slot like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite1%
- First-liner7%
- Middle-sixer16%
- Fourth-liner28%
- Tweener38%
- AHLer (most likely)74%
How he got there
1His line
0.83 P/GP
3 G, 2 A in 6 games, AHL
2League exchange rate
27 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−24%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
20.4
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
#109
2024, read alongside his numbers
6If he makes it
42 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Manitoba Moose | AHL | 6 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 0.83 |
| Last season | Flint Firebirds | OHL | 60 | 39 | 38 | 77 | 1.28 |