Prospect board, #4 overall
Egor Surin
Centre, 20.1 years old, Lokomotiv Yaroslavl (KHL), 6′2″ 200 lb, shoots left
Odds he's an NHL regular
89%
Scouting report
Egor Surin is a 20-year-old centre with Lokomotiv Yaroslavl in the KHL, a Nashville Predators first-round pick, 22 overall in 2024. He has 5 goals and 5 assists in 15 games, 0.67 a game, which works out to about 42 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Most of it is goals.
At 20.1 he is among the youngest regulars in the league, and age matters more than any single stat in these projections. Listed at 6-foot-2 and 200 pounds. His most likely outcome is an elite player, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him an 89% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 59% of a first-line career and 56% of turning into one of the league's best. If he makes it, figure about 68 points a season at his best. That is the top of this model's scale.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age and draft slot like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite (most likely)56%
- First-liner59%
- Middle-sixer76%
- Fourth-liner89%
- Tweener95%+
- AHLer95%+
How he got there
1His line
0.67 P/GP
5 G, 5 A in 15 games, KHL
2League exchange rate
42 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+8%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
20.1
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
#22
2024, read alongside his numbers
6If he makes it
68 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Lokomotiv Yaroslavl | KHL | 15 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 0.67 |
| Last season | Lokomotiv Yaroslavl | KHL | 57 | 15 | 22 | 37 | 0.65 |